Abstract
This paper evaluates the ability to predict COVID-19 caseloads in local areas using the text of geographically specific subreddits, in conjunction with other features. The problem is constructed as a binary classification task on whether the caseload change exceeds a threshold or not. We find that including Reddit features, alongside other informative resources, improves the models’ performance in predicting COVID-19 cases. On top of this, we show that exclusive use of Reddit features can act as a strong alternative data source for predicting a short-term rise in caseload due to its strong performance and the fact that it is readily available and updates instantaneously.
Felix Drinkall
Oxford PhD Student and ex-GB Athlete
My main research interest is the intersection between Natural Language Processing and Time Series Forecasting.